Although the GOP’s takeover of the House looks inevitable (barring massive fraud, of course), not many people seriously expect the GOP to capture the Senate as well. It’s not impossible, but it’s not likely. The reason for that is that Senators serve six-year terms (as opposed to the two-year terms served by Representatives); so in any given election year, only a third of the Senate is up for re-election. And, this year, the particular third that’s up for re-election isn’t the most favorable for the GOP – the Congressmen most vulnerable to challenge are those Democrats who were elected in 2006 and 2008, in normally conservative districts, who managed to ride the anti-Bush or Obama hopey-changey coattails to win their seats. Those are the candidates most vulnerable in the House; but in the Senate, those candidates won’t be up for re-election until 2012 and 2014. This is why it’s vital for the GOP, the Tea Party, conservatives, independents, and so forth to keep up the momentum in the future that’s fueling them today. Because the same momentum that’s going to cost some Democrat Senators their jobs next week could cost even more Democrats their jobs in years to come.
In a related story, which can be classified as a “feel-good” story or an “if only!” story, The Raw Story* reports that if the full Senate really were all up for re-election this year, according to polls, the GOP would likely win overwhelmingly. Not just the sixty seats required to break any Democrat filibuster, but possibly even the sixty-seven required to override a Presidential veto. (The latter point wouldn’t matter unless the House won a similar majority.)
*H/T: Lisette at HillBuzz.