But When You Assume

I just read something interesting this morning: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) may actually be in trouble. The Other McCain has some speculation (H.T: Ace of Spades):

In 2006, a midterm election that was also a big year for Democrats, there were barely 200,000 votes cast in the [Maryland] 5th District race. So if there is a similar turnout Nov. 2, and [Republican challenger Charles] Lollar merely matches the GOP’s 80,000 total from 2008, that puts him at 40%. Add another 15,000 votes, and he’s in shocker-upset range. Three weeks ago, I thought Lollar had a shot, based simply on analyzing the district and reading his biography: An up-through-the-ranks Marine intelligence officer – a major in the USMC Reserve. But after having lunch Friday with Lollar, I’m telling you flat-out: This guy’s a winner, if we can just get him the money to do it.

Dick Morris pointed out that there is no recent polling data in districts that are heavily blue and assumed to be safe for Democrats, so there may be many Democrats who are in trouble, and just don’t know it yet. (This on top of all of the other candidates and districts that are already being touted as possible Republican wins in November.) Hoyer might be in trouble, and blissfully unaware of the fact… And since knowing is half the battle, that means the Dems aren’t fighting back in those districts; since the DCCC is targeting their money to those districts where the Democrat candidate is in trouble but still considered to have a fighting chance.

The reason I’m personally enjoying these articles is that I live in Maryland’s fifth district, and Steny Hoyer is the representative who personally fails to represent me. I would love to have my vote against a state Democratic candidate actually mean something rather than be an exercise in futility. Don’t get wrong, I’d cast it anyway; but it would feel good to actually vote for a winner occasionally.